Market Update - Updated as of January, 2007
While all data on this page are from reliable sources and believed to be true, the author or its principal Agent Royal LePage Salt Spring Realty assumes no responsibility or liablility for its accuracy. The opinions expressed on this page are strictly the opinions of the author;  they should not be relied upon.

DATAWIZ©   - Lists of All Listings on Salt Spring Island, including non-MLS.
Victoria & Gulf Islands MLS Stats

March 2008 - will there be a price correction?

Many clients are asking whether they should wait with Buying a property in the Guilf Islands "until the prices on Salt Spring Island go down a bit). Well, Olympics or not, crisis in the US or not, the indications are that we may not see a "correction" (where sale prices go down) for a long time. We should have had a correction after everything doubled in price from 2001 to 2005; well, the "correction" came in a form of a much more modest and measured increase in sale prices - about 7% per year since 2005 steadily (non waterfront residential sector), even though in 2006 the volume was extremely low but without negatively effecting the prices.
The market continues to be perky in 2008 so far.

Having said that however, there have been many corrections to the ASKING prices in the last 3 years as the market is much more balanced (rather than the previous Sellers' market) and "smart" pricing is almost a must if the Sellers want to see their properties sold.

The difference is that in the Gulf Islands and Vancouver Island the market is largely driven by the demand from Buyers that want to retire or live here, not by other causes such as price of oil in Alberta.

I could see some correction in Vancouver, Squamish and Whistler after 2010 but would be surprised if we had one here, and if we did, for sure it would not be a significant one, barring catastrophes of some kind.

January 2008

We indeed ended up the year 2007 with the anticipated high volume of sales (total all categories of 297; for comparison the highest volume ever was 316 in 2003 and the lowest in the last 8 years was in 2006 with only 211 properties sold).

RESIDENTIAL NON_OCEANFRONT: The sale prices (both average and median) in the residential non-waterfront sector rose by 7.36% (average) and 6.77% (median). In 2007 we sold an all time high record number of non-waterfront residential properties, 171, representing 57.6% of all properties sold.

In this non-waterfront residental sector

7 properties sold under $300k
48 properties sold from $300k and $399k
43 properties sold from $400k to $499k
26 properties sold from $500k to $599k
20 properties sold from $600k to $699k
9 properties sold from $700k to $799k
10 properties sold from $800k to $899k
2 properties sold from $900k to $999k
and
6 properties over $1mi


LOTS UNDER 2 ACRES: Vacant land under 2 acres had a rebound in 2007 with volume more than doubling from 2006 to 23 lots (by comparison over 30 lots were sold in 2003 and 2003 each year and only 10 in 2006) with the average sale prices up by 22.2% and the median by 15.8%.

OCEANFRONTS: The average and median sale prices of oceanfront properties had a correction down by 15% after a spectacular jump of 70% last year from 2005, attributable to changing the type of clients seeking to buy ocean front properties. In both years though the samples were relatively low, 14 oceanfront properties sold in 2006 and 19 in 2007 (for comparison 47 in 2001).

OVER $1MIL PROPERTIES: The total number of oceanfront properties (not including Grace Point) sold in 2007, as already mentioned, was 19, 12 of those were over $1 mil (63%, as compared to 71% in 2006). In the residential non-waterfront sector 6 properties sold over $1mil representing 3.5% of all non-waterfront residential properties sold (as compared to 5% the previous year).

OVERALL $ VOLUME: 2007 had the highest ever $volume of properties sold, the total of $160,570,150 of real property changed hands on Salt Spring Island in 2007.

DEMOGRAPHICS: It is hard to pinpoint the Buyer's demographics precisely but in 2007 we were still getting many from Alberta either for retirement now or later. In many parts of Alberta the Real Estate market has slowed down at least in relative terms thus slowing down the Albertans' potential buying capacity. We are getting fewer Buyers from the US (as compared to the before 9/11 era when the the Can $ was in its low to $US), also folks from Vancouver and the Lower Mainland and a large segment of Buyers were local, still many first time Buyers and of course many downsizing.

OUTLOOK: The anticipation for 2008 is the continuing moderate sales price increases with good solid volume, despite of the doom and gloom south of the border.

January 2007

Here are some 2006 numbers:

When considering all properties sold in 2006 the number of properties sold was down 15% from last year (33% from 2004) but the median price virtually unchanged with the average sale price still up 4.62%.

In the residential non-waterfront sector the average and median sale prices were steady all year up at about 3% while the number of sales down 18% from 2005 (down 20% from 2003). Total number of properties sold in 2006 was 211 of which residential non-waterfront were 128 and in the oceanfront sector only 14 properties exchanged ownership (47 in 2003).

Vacant non-waterfront land under 2 acres posted only 10 properties sold in 2006, compared to 33 in 2002, average and median sale prices virtually unchanged.

One remarkable change occurred in the shift of average sale price of oceanfront properties from $970,522 in 2005 to $1,632,955 in 2006 with a similar jump of the median price from $765,000 in 2005 to $1,335,000 in 2006. Quite dramatic and noticeable to say the least. My theory on this is that (apart from the relatively small sample of only 14 properties sold) the money that used to buy waterfronts a few years ago ($600k to $900k) is now buying oceanview properties in the same price range and the waterfront properties are being sought after by the bigger money that still seems to be around.

The most expensive property on Salt Spring sold in 2006 was an oceanfront for $4 mil and the least expensive a lot for $180,000 and yes, a house on a lot for $185,000.

The most expensive non-waterfront residential property was bought for $1.7 mil.

Currently 76% of all listed waterfront properties are listed over $1 mil and in the non-waterfront residential listings 14.6% carry the over $1 mil price tag.

We currently have 143 residential non-waterfront listings as opposed some 85 in January 2004.

Prognosis?

Measured increase seems to be the buzzword; the interest is there the fundamentals support a balanced healthy market but with supply exceeding demand it is fairly certain that it will be a while before we see another significant price run.

July 2006

Reprint of my article in the Driftwood July 19, 2006:

MYTHS AND TRUTHS ABOUT SALT SPRING REAL ESTATE

Last week's Peter Vincent's article "Not quite willing to roll the dice on real estate gamble" was very good; be satisfied with what you have and concentrate on quality of life rather than losing sleep over how much one could make in the Real Estate "gold rush". Just about every article Peter writes is spot on. However, with respect to the comfortable monetary gains we can claim just by owning a property, I could not help thinking about the TV commercial "If life was like that, we would not need a VISA" (or was it MASTERCARD). The trouble is no matter how much our home appreciates, other Real Estate keeps up with it. The only way to substantially better our position would be to downsize or sell our house here and buy in an area of lower prices, such as Nanaimo, the prairies and most parts of the Maritimes to name just a few. Costa Rica does not sound bad either.

So how are we doing on Salt Spring Island with respect to Real Estate? The 3 different sold signs in a relatively short stretch of Fulford Ganges Road on the way out of town would make us think that the market is hot. But many For Sale signs popping up elsewhere may quiet our minds if we were thinking we were missing something.

This is what the stats show: it can be said that the recent market activity upturn started in 2001 and, you may be surprised, technically peaked in the Fall 2003/Spring 2004. In that Fall/Spring period we had the lowest inventory (around total of 80 residential non-waterfront listings), the highest number of sales (316 properties sold in all categories island wide in 2003) and there was Buyer's panic in the air. Today (2006) we have about 150 residential listings (almost double) but, to date, only about 100 properties sold. The market is, at the moment, quiet. If it does not pick up in the second half of the year, it will be the year with the lowest number of sales perhaps in a decade - forecasted drop of 37% from the peak in 2003 (the total number of properties sold).

However, the prices tell a different story. The average sale price of a residential non-waterfront property in 2003 was $355,670, in 2004 $392,425 and in 2005 $484,737. The median prices, though lower, show similar trend. Curiously enough the average sale price of a waterfront property showed a decline of 14% in 2005 from 2004. For the first time this year (the 1st 6 months) since 2001 the average sale price of all properties sold showed a slight decline, though the residential non-waterfront sector posted yet another (relatively insignificant) gain of 2%. This is where Peter may be disappointed with his yield at the end of this year.

Stats are boring but this may perk your attention: to sum up, in the period between 2001 and 2005 the average sale price for non waterfront residential homes on Salt Spring Island indeed rose 96%, waterfront properties 120% and vacant lots under 2 acres, brace yourself, 184%.

Today 78% of all current waterfront listings are over $1 mil, and 38% over 2 mil. The most expensive property listed is $5,995,000, the least expensive is $254,900, there are 4 current residential listings for under $300k, not counting dwellings on leased pads. In the residential non-waterfront home sector the average sale price in 2006 to date was $494,733, the average asking price for these sold properties was $511,936 - now, the average asking price of the remaining unsold residential listings is $642,933, about 26% higher than the former.

No market is a static unchanging process, in fact the opposite is true, every market has cycles and cannot sustain itself in a steady pace indefinitely, up or down. On Salt Spring Island the market, at least for the time being, is running out of steam, many Buyers are unwilling to pay the prices. So they wait or go elsewhere, or never come in the first place as they easily see the (asking) prices on the Internet. The rising interest rates do not help. The Buyers are once again gaining control of the market, it could be said that we are experiencing a transition from Sellers' to balanced to Buyer's market. Once again, more so than in a rapidly rising market the key to successful sale of one's home is precise pricing and flawless presentation. Reports from many other areas of BC (and in parts of the U.S.) indicate similar trends.

Is there a bubble and is it going to burst? The answer is NO, with 99% certainty. There will be (already is) a market adjustment (a correction) but no repeat of the 80s. In the 80's the consumer borrowing interest rates shot up to over 20% p.a. and the Real Estate prices were artificially inflated. Today the market is backed up by strong fundamentals and the interest rates are regulated by the Bank of Canada which closely links it to the economy. The climate, the beauty and the lifestyle of South-western BC, Victoria, Saanich, rural Vancouver Island, the Sunshine Coast and the Gulf Islands in particular, will continue to attract baby boomers and zoomers from the rest of Canada and from abroad. This creates demand which creates an active market. So in the meantime Peter, keep fighting the bamboo in your garden for we know for sure, your home will appreciate even more, empirically it is indeed just a matter of time.

Tom Navratil, Realtor

January 17, 2006

Update: As compared to 2004, year 2005, with the exception of waterfront properties, posted further gains in the average and median sale prices on the Island.

In the residential non-waterfront sector the average sale price was up by further 24% ($484,737), with a similar gain of 21% in the median sale price ($414,000). Dollar volume up by 25% while number of properties sold up only by 5.41%. 4 year gain in average sale price from the start of the upswing (2001): 96%.

Oceanfront properties took a break last year with 20% fewer properties sold (29), average sale price DOWN 14%, median price almost unchanged and dollar volume down by 35%. However the gain from 2001 remains high at 120% (average sale price).

Vacant land sales were not too active, I suspect for lack of inventory and high building costs. We sold 10 vacant lots on the Island under 2 acres (as opposed to 11 in 2004), with average sale price pushed up 32% ($241,300), Median price up $52% ($244,000), dollar volume by 19%. The total gain by vacant lots since 2001 to 2005 is whopping 184% (average sales price) and by 225% (median sale price). This shows that once upon a time, not long ago lots were quite cheap!

As far as comparing all categories together, the number of all properties sold in 2005 was 247, down 7.5% from 2004; we sold 316 properties in 2003, 297 properties in 2002 and 280 properties in 2001.

As of today, the least expensive home, single family dwelling currently listed is asking $219,000; the most expensive single family non-waterfront home is listed at $1,700,000. The most expensive home on Salt Spring from all categories currently listed is at $5,995,000 (oceanfront).

Prognosis? More stable market in 2006 but with further upward pressure on prices.

For complete stat tabulation please e-mail me - available in .pdf format.

December 01 , 2005

On Salt Spring Island, very busy summer followed by quiet October and November. However, with only 238 properties sold in 2005 to date, it appears that year 2005 will be even lower in terms of number of properties sold than 2004 (with total of 267 properties sold, 2003 recorded 316 properties sold).

In terms of dollar volume, 2004 was the highest ever
(despite the smaller number of properties sold as compared to
several preceding years) at over $125,000,000.
To date 2005 dollar volume is just over $118,000,000.
This could easily exceed the 2004 value by the end of December.

More info once we close year 2005! Full stats available upon request.

February 19, 2005

The market has definitely leveled off. Very quiet Sept/04 to the end of January 2005, with the exception of December where we had a genuine flurry of sale activity.

Looking back at year 2004 on Salt Spring Island, we see that while the residential sector shows modest changes from 2003 to 2004, sales volume slightly down, prices slightly up and dollar volume slightly up, in the waterfront sector the situation is different. Median price up 22% while average price up by 60% (no doubt influenced by a solid number of high priced sales over 1 mil). The number of waterfront properties sold is the same in 2003 and 2004 but the dollar volume is up by whopping 62%.

In the last 3 years the sale prices of residential non-waterfront sector gained 60% while Waterfronts gained 82%, based on median price.

Overall, counting all sold properties in 2003 and 2004, number of properties sold is down in 2004 by 16% while overall dollar volume is up by 10%. Value of properties on Salt Spring, all sectors considered, is up 58% in the last 3 years, based on median price.

In 2003 we sold 10 waterfront properties over $1 mil, same number in 2004. However of these in 2003 none were over $2mil, in 2004 six properties were.

The highest sale price on salt Spring in 2004 was $3,500,000 on Sunset Drive while the lowest was $45,000 for a unit in Brinkworthy (does not include land), the lowest price paid where Real Property is included was $127,000 for a lot.

Outlook? believe the consensus is active but more stable market in 2005, good properties sharply priced continue to sell quickly.

For detailed summary e-mail me

October 29, 2004

The market has been VERY, VERY quiet in the last 6 weeks on Salt Spring island following signs of slowing down throughout the summer. Not surprisingly, as after the last 4 years of significant price increase a consolidation period had to come some time. We believe that it is here. Inventory of rersidential listing is increased, January 2004 we showed 71 listings, as of today we show 145. Even with seasonal adjustment the difference is significant. Good news for Buyers but also Sellers, as most Seller are also Buyers once they sell their property. Please refer to recent newspaper articles one and two

June 1, 2004

"When will the bubble burst?" I am being asked often by clients and curious onlookers of the current Real Estate market. What do I think? I am not sure if there is a bubble to burst as in the eighties but the market may run out of steam soon, to rest for a bit, at least on Salt Spring Island. As of April 30, 2004, the average asking price of a single family detached home on Salt Spring Island was approx. 371,000, sale price $341,000. However, the average asking price of then current listings was $522,000! Great expectations that the market is often not ready to meet. In spite of that, however, there are still good properties to be had at decent prices, however, one has to be patient, or find and recognize a good deal, and often has to be very quick. Intrinsically the gulf islands will continue to be in demand for living as well as recreation, and it is almost certain that we will see continued upward pressure on prices now and in the future.

January 29, 2004

The final numbers for year 2003 are in. How did the market do on Salt Spring Island in 2003? It was up in prices and volume. Some highlights: Average (as well as median) sale price of residential
non-waterfront up 23%, volume up by 20%. Waterfronts - average price up by 30.5%, median 14.5%, volume down 5%. Vacant lots under 2 acres - Average price up by 42% (!!!), median up by 31%, volume down by 3%. This leaves solid gains in average sale prices over 40% over the last 24 months in the residential non-waterfront sector, 37% in waterfronts (but 49% median price).
If you are interested in the entire analysis, please e-mail me.

The outlook?
The majority consensus seems to be that we are in for a bit of a plateau; the last 2 months were very quiet though now with a few more listings coming on stream the activity seems to be starting to perk up again. But who knows, remember places like Whistler where it never seems to stop going up.

June 30, 2003:

The market is not crazy but, in my opinion, it continues to hold its own steam with more and more properties selling at noticable higher prices than "we are used to" even when the recent significant market improvement is taken into consideration. The inventory of listings is shrinking although as of today, we still have approximately 85 non-waterfront residential, 50 non waterfront vacant land and 40 waterfront listings (total 175, this compares to total of almost 400 listings at the end of year 2000, and prior years). Total solds in 2003 to date 151 properties.

Analysis of the sale prices in the 1st 2 quarters of the year show further gains: In addition to the sale price increases last year, the average sale price for residential non-waterfront up 19.73%, median up 21.7%, ask to sale price ratio 97.1%, up 2.21%. Similarly all waterfronts average sale price up 26.75%, median price up 19.02%. Sales volumes, as extrapolated over the rest of the year up 11.94% and up 5.26% respectively.

February 12, 2003:

2002/2003 Prices are significantly up.

In year 2002, as compared to 2001, the average price for residential non-waterfront property up by 16%, median price by 14%. Waterfronts (residential as well as vacant waterfront lots): median price up by 30% but average price only by 5%. Volume slightly down on both counts.

Lots under 2 acres: number of sales up by 22% (33 lots under 2ac sold), average sale price up by 17%, median price up by 36%!!

Lots between 2 - 10 acres, number of sale up by whopping 81%, average sale price up by 14%, median by 15%.

Vacant land over 10 acres: average price up by 60% and a dollar volume by 132%!! Average size of acreages sold in 2002 was 68.19 acres as compared to 25.57ac in 2001. The price per acre rose by 38%, from $9,391 to $13,019 per acre in 2002.

Overall: In all 297 properties changed hands on Salt Spring in 2002, up 6% from 2001 (280) and up from 211 in 2000.

Tabulated 6 year summary available upon request - e-mailed in .pdf format (Acrobat Reader), if interested, please request by e-mail from: Tom Navratil

The market continues to shift to favor Sellers, fewer choices and bargains for Buyers.
But there are still close to 200 listings available (February 12, 2003).
Patience, dilligence and a good Realtor can do a lot.

February 2002

Year 2001 was busy on Salt Spring Island with sales volume substantially higher than previous year. Year 2002 started like that already, busy January. Though there are still lots of listings out there, the better ones and well priced ones disappear rather quickly. More updating coming up soon.

January 5, 2001

Year 2000 preliminary update. Another year is behind us and the preliminary numbers show total sales reported in year 2000 on Salt Spring Island were approx. 220 (subject to revision and adjustments), which would be approx. 12% fewer than in 1999. Yet, the year seemed busier to everyone than ever!

January 31, 2000 - The data are in and it is quite evident that the Real Estate market on Salt Spring Island is indeed in the process of firming up. Total sales on Salt Spring Island in 1999 were 251 properties (homes, lots, acreages, farms, commercial, waterfronts).